Iran's Hidden Nuclear Secrets: How Much Damage Did the US Really Do?

 Inside Iran’s Nuclear Fallout: What the US Strike Left Behind

After the ceasefire, in his first address, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that the United States gained nothing from attacking Iran’s nuclear sites. However, the United States claims that Iran’s nuclear sites, especially Fordow, were targeted.

Western intelligence agencies had first publicly revealed in 2009 that there was a secret nuclear facility at Fordow. According to a written assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the U.S. attacks affected Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

However, this is an early assessment and is considered less reliable. The DIA is a part of the U.S. Department of Defense that gathers intelligence specifically for military operations. But the key question remains: how much damage can truly be done to a nuclear program through such attacks?

Post-strike satellite images show craters and dust clouds, but they provide very limited information about the damage done underground. Regarding Fordow, the satellite images are not clear enough to confirm whether internal systems were affected.

It is possible that despite using multiple bombs, the U.S. was unable to penetrate Iran’s heavily fortified concrete structures. As a result, the main hall and critical internal machinery may have remained intact.

For the first time, the U.S. used bunker-buster bombs in a mission, adding further uncertainty to the situation. The centrifuge machines — which rapidly spin to enrich uranium — are highly sensitive and could be vulnerable to attacks.

To get a clear picture of the actual damage, intelligence agencies will have to rely on additional sources of data. Seismic detectors, which are used to analyze earthquakes, can help assess underground damage.

LiDAR technology — light detection and ranging — can also be employed. These sensors, whether mounted on aircraft or drones, emit laser pulses that can be used to create 3D maps of underground facilities. Besides this, intercepted Iranian messages and human intelligence sources also play a crucial role.

Even if sites like Fordow suffered serious damage and are currently unusable, as U.S. officials claim, that does not mean Iran’s entire nuclear program has been dismantled.

All indicators suggest that Iran may have moved its high-quality enriched uranium stockpile to another location. A new mountain site, known as “Peak X,” has recently come under international attention, and there is a possibility that Iran has set up centrifuge systems there.

Despite having enough enriched uranium, Iran would still need to complete other phases — such as weaponization and delivery system development — to create a functional nuclear weapon. These steps require highly advanced scientific expertise.

The U.S. strike has certainly pushed back Iran’s nuclear program, but the extent of that setback depends entirely on what remains after the attack. That answer is not definitive — it is still only speculation.